RELIGIOUS CONCERN ON THE JAPA SYNDROME IN NIGERIA: ASSESSMENT OF ITS DETERMINANTS AND CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

This paper explored how religion vis-à-vis the church should show concern on the issue that borders on the Japa syndrome in Nigeria. The principal findings of the study observed how governance and non-governance indicators have a bearing on the japa syndrome in Nigeria using annual data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from 1996 to 2021. Having found the variables to be free from unit root problems using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and bounds test for long run relationship, both the short run and long run relationships were estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling approach. Variables of interest were Net Migration as a proxy for japa which is a dependent variable and the explanatory variables were population of Nigeria, youth unemployment rate, inflation rate, political stability and absence of violence terrorism index and government effectiveness index. The short run model revealed that the lag values of net migration have positive significant influence on the current levels of japa. Equally, inflation was found as a significant predictor of japa in the short run. In the long run, it was found that, all the explanatory variables constitute serious push factors for japa in Nigeria except for political stability index which has a negative and significant influence on japa. The study, however, recommends that, religion vis-à-vis the church should be concerned on the matter and should collaborate with the government by doubling its efforts towards controlling inflation, and youth unemployment in Nigeria.