CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF NONRECIPROCAL FRAMEWORKS IN GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS AND THE PROSPECTS OF AFRICAN EXPORTS: THE CASE OF THE AFRICAN GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (AGOA)

Résumé

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has played a crucial role in enhancing market access for sub-Saharan African (SSA) exports to the United States through a nonreciprocal trade framework. However, the shift toward a transactional trade model raises concerns about the future of African exports. This study examines the impact of AGOA’s expiration on SSA economies, particularly the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), using customs union theory and world-systems theory as analytical lenses. The research adopts an exploratory approach, analyzing trade data and policy trends to assess how reciprocal trade frameworks may shape export prospects. Findings indicate that while AGOA facilitated export diversification and job creation, its expiration exposes African economies to heightened competition, potential trade diversion, and structural vulnerabilities. The dominance of raw material exports over value-added goods remains a key challenge. Furthermore, inadequate infrastructure and limited industrial capacity hinder the ability of SSA countries to compete in a reciprocal trade system. To mitigate these risks, the study recommends strengthening regional trade agreements such as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), enhancing value addition in exports, and negotiating favorable bilateral trade agreements. Additionally, investments in infrastructure and industrial development are critical to ensuring sustainable export growth. In conclusion, while AGOA’s expiration presents challenges, it also offers an opportunity for African nations to redefine their trade strategies. By fostering regional integration and economic diversification, SSA countries can enhance their resilience in the evolving global trade landscape.